OUR HISTORY
Simetar 5 Only Works on the Downloaded Version of Office 365. Do Not Download Simetar if You Are Using the Web Version of Office 365.
Simetar©: Simulation & Econometrics to Analyze Risk is an Excel Add-In developed since 1997 at Texas A&M. University by James W. Richardson, Keith D. Schumann and Paul A. Feldman. The software was initially developed to provide simulation and graphical analysis tools for conducting risk analysis of policy changes on agribusinesses. As Simetar’s capabilities grew, it was used to teach graduate courses in simulation and risk analysis at Texas A&M.
Simetar© requires little additional memory and operates efficiently on Windows computers using Windows 10 running Excel 2013 or 2016. Simetar© consists of both Menu Driven Functions and User Defined Functions that run in Excel. A common theme with Simetar©, is that all functions are dynamic; so if changes are made to the original data most all parameters, hypothesis tests, regression models, and risk ranking strategies are automatically updated. This feature of having Excel dynamically recalculate parameters offers significant efficiencies during the development, validation and verification steps for developing stochastic simulation models.
The more than 250 User Defined functions in Simetar© can be categorized into six groups: (1) random variables for simulation, (2) statistical analyses and tests, (3) graphical analyses, (4) ranking risky alternatives, (5) data manipulation and analysis, (6) econometric modeling, and (7) forecasting. Simetar© can be used to perform all of the steps for developing, simulating, and applying a stochastic model, namely: estimating parameters for random variables, simulating stochastic variables, testing the validity of the random variables, presenting the results graphically, and ranking risky alternatives.
Simetar© was designed to provide simulation modelers the risk analysis tools needed to build a comprehensive simulation model, simulate the model for multiple scenarios, validate the simulation results, rank risky scenarios, and display the results using graphical aids. The list of risk analysis tools included in Simetar© came from the more than 40 years of simulation experience Dr. Richardson has from conducting risk analyses of policy changes. Additional capabilities have been added to Simetar© over the past three years after using it to teach simulation workshops both domestically and abroad. During the past year, significant improvements and additions have been made to the multiple regression tools, statistical validation tests, graphical capabilities, and random number generation routines.
Simetar© has been used to teach more than two dozen graduate classes at Texas A&M since 2000. More than 850 students put Simetar© to the test, providing feedback that improved the design and flexibility. Simetar© has been used extensively by researchers and teachers at policy centers and applied economics departments across the U.S. and Europe for the past 15 years. The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute uses Simetar© for their econometrics estimation as well as simulation and graphical display of results. Simetar© has been used for teaching risk analysis at several universities in the US and abroad.
Our Team
Was a Regents Professor, Texas A&M AgriLife Senior Faculty Fellow, and Co-Director of the Agricultural & Food Policy Center in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University. He taught two graduate courses in simulation, forecasting and risk analysis for decision making. http://www.afpc.tamu.edu/courses/ His research experience for 41 years applied risk analysis to policy analysis and business analysis. He has written more than 150 journal articles and 500 research reports and professional papers. He is most noted for his work in multivariate non-normal distribution simulation, both intra and inter-temporal, and for ranking risky scenarios. He retired January 1, 2020 and is using Simetar for consulting and and teaching simulation workshops.
Is the Senior Vice President at AgriLogic Consulting. Prior to receiving his Ph.D. in statistics, he received a BS degree in Agribusiness and an MS degree in Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M University. His research has led to the development of stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) the newest technique for ranking risky alternatives based on utility. He has been responsible for the majority of the programming in Simetar©.